Does your U of C vote count?

Will your vote make a difference this coming November?

If you're a University of Chicago student registered in Illinois, blogger Jon Bruner of Forbes magazine says no.

Despite the hordes of Columbia students who turned out to support Obama at the September 11 forum on Columbia's Morningside Heights campus this Thursday, Bruner argues that pre-election hype isn't necessarily indicative of who will actually show up at the polls come November 4.

Bruner's hypothesis isn't without academic backing either. His article cites an NYU political scientist on voting trends among young people ages 18 to 24.

At a forum for incoming New York University students a few weeks ago, NYU political scientist Rogan Kersh told the students, “you might say you’re going to vote, but something will happen; you’ll oversleep, you’ll have a test, you’ll forget to register.”

For die-hard Obama supporters at the U of C, what Bruner writes next about University of Chicago votes and those from other blue state peer institutions might prove alternatively depressing or infuriating.

In any case, the Electoral College sees to it that the votes of many Columbia students won’t have any effect on the presidential selection process. Nor will many student votes at the University of Chicago, Harvard, or the University of California at Berkeley, for that matter. Election results in New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and California are practically foregone conclusions, and savvy students at those institutions may well do better to stay home and study than to vote in those states. Both candidates might have preferred that last night’s event had taken place at schools in State College, Pa., Madison, Wis., or Gainesville, Fla.

College students are certainly excited, but that is not a guarantee that they will actually make a difference in the upcoming election.

Post your thoughts and comments on Bruner's predictions for college voter turnout.